The Experts

Price growth in 2016 - the year in review

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At the end of 2015, it looked like the Sydney market was finally slowing down. Clearance rates had slipped back into the 50% range and investor activity had declined due to tighter lending criteria. After three-and-a-half years of spectacular price growth, it looked like we were in for cooler market conditions in 2016. But it simply didn’t eventuate.

A severe lack of homes for sale has characterised the Sydney market all year and when supply and demand is this tight, above average price growth is inevitable due to intensified competition.

Let’s take a look at the latest numbers from CoreLogic RP Data, released on December 1.

Over the calendar year 2016, Sydney house prices are up 15.3% and apartment prices are up 10.6%. That’s excellent growth. Maybe things will change in 2017 but we’d need to see a significant boost to stock levels before prices really begin to settle. For now, they’re still rising and pretty strongly, too.

Looking at the rest of the country, house prices over 2016 are up 11.4% in Melbourne, 9.9% in Canberra, 7.9% in Hobart, 6.6% in Adelaide, 4.1% in Brisbane/Gold Coast and 0.1% in Darwin. House prices declined in Perth by -5.9%.

Apartment price growth was pretty subdued everywhere except Sydney, mainly due to the growing oversupply in East Coast markets. Prices are up 5.5% in Hobart, 5.2% in Canberra, 5% in Darwin, 3.2% in Adelaide, 0.9% in Brisbane/Gold Coast and 0.6% in Melbourne. Apartment prices declined in Perth by -2.2%.

In our latest McGrath Report, we looked at what was pushing price growth in the best performing East Coast capital city suburbs. The key factors were lifestyle options, strong or improving infrastructure, good schools, local jobs or proximity to employment hubs, public transport and a vibrant ‘village’ atmosphere.

Newly released figures compiled by CoreLogic RP Data reveal the suburbs with the greatest house and apartment price growth over the 12 months to 30 September 2016. They are below.

Top 10 Suburbs for Price Growth by Capital City

HOUSES 

State

Suburb

 Median sales price last 12 months

12 month change in median sales price (12 months)

ACT

DEAKIN

$1,206,000

26.0%

ACT

NARRABUNDAH

$831,000

20.8%

ACT

NGUNNAWAL

$490,000

16.7%

ACT

DUFFY

$678,750

16.0%

ACT

O'CONNOR

$945,000

13.9%

ACT

PALMERSTON

$675,000

13.5%

ACT

EVATT

$540,000

13.1%

ACT

DOWNER

$735,000

12.7%

ACT

AINSLIE

$925,000

9.8%

ACT

GIRALANG

$570,000

9.1%

State

Suburb

 Median sales price last 12 months

12 month change in median sales price (12 months)

NSW

LONDONDERRY

$1,285,000

38.9%

NSW

MANLY

$2,716,000

30.9%

NSW

CAMMERAY

$2,450,000

28.3%

NSW

CLOVELLY

$2,775,000

27.9%

NSW

HAZELBROOK

$526,000

25.2%

NSW

MATRAVILLE

$1,716,600

24.8%

NSW

KURRAJONG

$987,500

23.1%

NSW

APPIN

$684,450

20.3%

NSW

GALSTON

$1,185,000

20.3%

NSW

GLEN ALPINE

$830,000

20.3%

State

Suburb

 Median sales price last 12 months

12 month change in median sales price (12 months)

VIC

WINDSOR

$1,417,853

49.5%

VIC

MICKLEHAM

$320,000

49.3%

VIC

ABBOTSFORD

$1,100,000

37.5%

VIC

HAWTHORN

$2,015,625

29.6%

VIC

EDITHVALE

$846,000

28.2%

VIC

FAIRFIELD

$1,205,000

27.5%

VIC

CHELSEA

$801,500

27.4%

VIC

SUNSHINE

$635,000

24.8%

VIC

FITZROY

$1,276,500

24.5%

VIC

BOX HILL

$1,400,000

23.9%

State

Suburb

 Median sales price last 12 months

12 month change in median sales price (12 months)

QLD

WILSTON

$1,085,000

21.6%

QLD

BANYO

$545,000

17.2%

QLD

CARINA HEIGHTS

$708,500

16.9%

QLD

DARRA

$420,001

16.7%

QLD

NEWPORT

$920,000

15.8%

QLD

MACGREGOR

$780,000

13.9%

QLD

NEW FARM

$1,626,000

13.7%

QLD

NUDGEE

$628,000

13.2%

QLD

SEVENTEEN MILE ROCKS

$695,000

13.0%

QLD

COORPAROO

$852,500

12.5%

 

APARTMENTS

State

Suburb

 Median sales price last 12 months

12 month change in median sales price (12 months)

ACT

WATSON

$398,750

22.7%

ACT

BARTON

$533,000

19.5%

ACT

O'CONNOR

$462,500

12.1%

ACT

BONYTHON

$452,500

9.7%

ACT

GUNGAHLIN

$351,000

8.8%

ACT

COOK

$502,500

6.3%

ACT

BANKS

$393,750

6.0%

ACT

HOLT

$378,000

5.0%

ACT

PALMERSTON

$381,750

4.6%

ACT

NGUNNAWAL

$357,500

3.9%

State

Suburb

 Median sales price last 12 months

12 month change in median sales price (12 months)

NSW

MILLERS POINT

$2,000,000

48.1%

NSW

FAIRLIGHT

$1,286,000

39.0%

NSW

CARINGBAH SOUTH

$1,275,000

34.9%

NSW

ROSEVILLE

$865,000

31.1%

NSW

BALMAIN

$1,150,000

29.9%

NSW

ALEXANDRIA

$754,000

23.6%

NSW

SOUTH HURSTVILLE

$780,000

21.9%

NSW

CLOVELLY

$1,200,000

20.0%

NSW

CHIPPENDALE

$806,000

19.4%

NSW

LINDFIELD

$983,500

19.2%

State

Suburb

 Median sales price last 12 months

12 month change in median sales price (12 months)

VIC

ALBION

$282,000

32.1%

VIC

FAIRFIELD

$592,500

31.7%

VIC

BRIGHTON

$925,000

23.7%

VIC

BRAYBROOK

$455,000

23.6%

VIC

HAMPTON EAST

$642,000

22.3%

VIC

EDITHVALE

$565,000

19.6%

VIC

DANDENONG NORTH

$381,500

19.2%

VIC

ROSANNA

$633,000

19.0%

VIC

BONBEACH

$503,500

18.5%

VIC

ASHWOOD

$760,000

17.8%

State

Suburb

 Median sales price last 12 months

12 month change in median sales price (12 months)

QLD

CAMP HILL

$560,000

24.1%

QLD

BEENLEIGH

$219,000

15.0%

QLD

COORPAROO

$460,000

13.6%

QLD

SCARBOROUGH

$472,500

10.5%

QLD

NORMAN PARK

$529,500

10.3%

QLD

NEWSTEAD

$600,500

10.1%

QLD

CABOOLTURE

$214,000

8.9%

QLD

BRACKEN RIDGE

$350,500

8.4%

QLD

ENOGGERA

$420,000

8.2%

QLD

STRATHPINE

$283,750

7.9%

Source: CoreLogic RP Data; 12 months to September 2016; suburbs with a minimum of 40 sales during the year

Also in our McGrath Report, we discussed the key signs for identifying the next hot spots for growth. Here are my tips to help you when looking for your next investment location.

Macro Factors

• Strong population growth

• Good local employment or access to job hubs

• Gentrification of housing stock

• Growing household incomes

• Lifestyle amenities – cafes, shops, entertainment and recreation

• Schools and catchment zones

• Presence of big retail brands

• Public transport and walkability.

Market Factors

• Rising tenant and buyer demand

• Low or falling days on market

• Low or falling vacancy rates

• More auctions and rising clearance rates

• Reduced vendor discounting

• Limited supply of future housing.

This will be my final column for the year. I wish you and your friends and family a wonderful Christmas and a relaxing holiday break.

Published: Wednesday, December 21, 2016

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